More than one-third of voters undecided, not voting or looking at other candidates
LANSING, Mich. – Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by five percentage points (34 percent – 29 percent) in Michigan as Republicans are gathering in Cleveland to nominate Donald Trump as their Presidential nominee. The statewide poll, conducted by Marketing Resource Group (MRG), showed that over 35 percent of Michigan voters are still undecided, looking at other candidates or are not sure they will vote for President this fall.
Trump is currently leading among Michigan Independent voters, 25 percent to 21 percent over Clinton, but Clinton’s lead can be directly attributed to her strength with Democrats (71 percent support) as compared to Trump’s support among Republicans (63 percent support). Only 57 percent of Republican women voters are committed to Trump at this time, with 31 percent saying they are undecided. Only 4 percent of Republican women are voting for Clinton.
Geographically, Clinton’s strongest support comes from the Detroit metropolitan are where she leads Trump 40 to 27 percent. Trump’s strongest area of the state is the northern Michigan where he leads Clinton 41 to 20 percent. The largest block of undecided voters is in the mid- Michigan/Lansing area where 54 percent of the voters are undecided (29 percent), looking at other candidates or may not vote in the Presidential election.
Neither candidate is popular
A majority of Michigan voters have a negative view of both Clinton (33 percent favorable/55 percent unfavorable) and Trump (27 percent favorable/60 percent unfavorable) when voters were asked their basic opinion of each of the major party candidates. While Republicans have not yet unified on Trump, they have unified in their dislike of Clinton (3 percent favorable and 91 percent unfavorable).
“If Michigan is going to be a toss-up state, Donald Trump’s goal during this convention should be to solidify his Republican base and start addressing issues that will attract women voters, especially Republican women voters, to his candidacy,” said Tom Shields, President of MRG. “More than one-third of the Michigan vote is up for grabs. Donald Trump gets the first shot this week in convincing the voters he’s the candidate they should put their trust in.”
The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.
GOP Presidential Primary Vote
If the election for President was being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, for whom would you be voting for? (The poll did not ask a lean follow-up question)
|Someone else (volunteered)||2%||2%||2%||2%||2%||2%||2%||2%|
|Wouldn’t vote (volunteered)||5%||4%||10%||2%||6%||3%||5%||2%|
*Totals may not add up to 100% because of automatic rounding
Is your opinion of Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him/her? (If favorable/unfavorable, ask, do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?)
MRG Michigan Poll July, 2016
The survey of 800 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live interview July 11-15, 2016. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. In addition, quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Thirty percent of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only or cell phone dominant households.
A sample of 800 likely voters in Michigan yields a sampling margin of error of ±3.46 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval.
For a full set of cross tabs, see crosstabs for web.
About Marketing Resource Group, Inc.
Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc. (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 30 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan.
Follow MRG on Twitter @mrgmichigan and on Facebook.