Senator Gary Peters increases a slight edge on John James in the bid for US Senate
LANSING, Mich. – Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Gary Peters hold slight leads over their Republican rivals, according to a recent poll commissioned and conducted by Marketing Resource Group, LLC.
In the race for the White House, the statewide poll of 600 likely voters shows the former Vice President with 44 percent support and President Trump with 41 percent. When asked to rate their feelings toward either candidate, President Trump received more personal favorable responses with 41 percent and also higher negatives at 48 percent. This is in comparison to former Vice President Biden who received 36 percent favorable responses and 41 percent negative.
The poll was conducted the week after the presidential primary election where a lot of spending was happening on the democrat side and Joe Biden recorded a significant win over Bernie Sanders.
“This race is shaping up to be a potential repeat of the Presidential race in 2016,” said Jenell Leonard, owner of MRG. “Neither candidate is personally popular and the partisan support has solidified for each of them. Twenty–five percent of the Independent voters are currently undecided or voting for a third-party candidate. Their votes are up for grabs and whoever wins them over will likely win in November.”
President Trump has the strongest support in Macomb County, the counties surrounding the Detroit Metro area – including Livingston, Lapeer and Monroe – West Michigan voters, men and conservatives. Biden is doing well in Wayne and Oakland Counties, the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City area and among women, young and African-American voters.
Looking at the U.S Senate race, Democrat candidate Gary Peters has increased his lead to 42 percent compared to 35 percent who support Republican John James. This an increased spread of four points compared to the Michigan Poll® conducted in the fall of 2019 which showed Peters with 43 percent support compared to James’ 40 percent.
The results of a question measuring the name identification and perception of the U.S. Senate candidates showed 73 percent of the voters were aware of Peters with 22 percent having a favorable opinion of him and 17 percent having a negative opinion. Sixty-seven percent of the voters were aware of John James with 19 percent having a favorable opinion of him and 19 percent negative.
“After five years in office, Gary Peters is still unknown to almost one-third of Michigan voters and that alone makes him potentially vulnerable,” said Tom Shields, MRG’s Senior Advisor. “But his early spending this quarter, running positive campaign ads for himself and starting to attack his Republican rival, John James, has paid dividends and opened up a seven-point lead. However, the poll also shows eleven percent of the black vote going to James at this time. This is twice as high as James received in 2018 in the race against Debbie Stabenow and could be real trouble for Peters if it holds in November.”
Gary Peters’ strongest support comes from Democrats, union households, and those living in Wayne County, Oakland County and the Tri-Cities area of the state. John James’ strongest support comes from Republicans, and those living in Macomb County, West Michigan, Northern Michigan and the counties surrounding the Detroit Metro areas including Livingston, Lapeer and Monroe.
The Questions and Results
The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.
Ballot Test:
Q. As you know, Michigan will have a general election on November 3rd. If the election for President were held today, and Donald Trump was the Republican candidate and Joe Biden was the Democrat candidate, would you vote for [ROTATE] (Donald Trump the Republican), (Joe Biden the Democrat), or for someone else? [IF DON’T KNOW, ASK:] Well, if you had to decide, are you leaning toward [ROTATE] Donald Trump, Joe Biden or someone else?
Vote Donald Trump ………………………… 39%
Lean Donald Trump ………………………….. 2%
Vote Joe Biden ……………………………….. 42%
Lean Joe Biden …………………………………. 2%
Vote Someone else …………………………….. 6%
Lean Someone else ………………………….. 0.2%
Won’t Vote (VOL) ………………………….. 1.4%
Undecided / Don’t Know ……………………. 6%
Refused ……………………………………………. 1%
TOTALS
Vote Trump…………………………………….. 41%
Vote Biden………………………………………. 44%
Q. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for [ROTATE] (John James the Republican), (Gary Peters the Democrat), or for someone else? [IF DON’T KNOW, ASK:] Well, if you had to decide, are you leaning toward [ROTATE] John James, Gary Peters or someone else?
Vote John James ……………………………… 30%
Lean John James ……………………………….. 5%
Vote Gary Peters …………………………….. 39%
Lean Gary Peters ………………………………. 3%
Vote someone else …………………………….. 1%
Lean someone else …………………………….. 1%
Won’t Vote (VOL) …………………………….. 1%
Undecided / Don’t Know ………………….. 13%
Refused ……………………………………………. 1%
TOTALS
Vote James……………………………………… 35%
Vote Peters……………………………………… 42%
Personal Approval Ratings
Q. Now, I’m going to read you the names of some people in the news, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so.
President:
| Very Pos | Somewhat Pos | Neutral | Somewhat Neg | Very Neg | Never Heard Of | Don’t Know | Ref | |
| Donald Trump | 29.4 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 40.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Joe Biden | 12.8 | 23.3 | 20.9 | 15.9 | 25.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Total Positive Total Negative
Donald Trump 41% 48%
Joe Biden 36% 41%
U.S. Senate:
| Very Pos | Somewhat Pos | Neutral | Somewhat Neg | Very Neg | Never Heard Of | Don’t Know | Ref | |
| Gary Peters | 8.3 | 13.3 | 28.2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 27 | 6.3 | 0.2 |
| John James | 10.1 | 8.8 | 19.9 | 5.7 | 13.3 | 32.6 | 9.5 | 0 |
Total Positive Total Negative
Gary Peters 22% 17%
John James 19% 19%
If anyone in the media would like additional numbers or cross tabs, please do not hesitate to contact us.
MRG Michigan Poll® Spring 2020
None of the questions released in this press advisory were paid for or sponsored by outside third parties. The data belongs to MRG and is being released to the public.
The +4% Dem survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live interview March 16-20. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. Thirty percent of the sample was conducted with cell phone users. In addition, quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans.
A sample of 600 likely voters in Michigan yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.
About Marketing Resource Group
Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group (www.mrgmi.com) is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll®, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 35 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan.
