LANSING, Mich. – Looking forward to another rematch of Joe Biden and Donald Trump on the presidential ballot next year? If you answered no, you’re in the company of 67% of voting Michiganders who agree with you. In a recent MRG-commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted October 2-8, results show only 24% of Michigan voters are looking forward to Biden v. Trump II.
If voters do experience this rematch, Trump wins by seven points as 42% say they will support the former president while 35% confirm their support for President Biden. This gap can largely be attributed to Biden’s decline of support from within the Democrat base. Eighty-four percent of Democrats are not looking forward to the rematch, and only 79% of Democrats say they plan to support Biden in 2024. The Independent voters are going to Trump by 9%.
Republicans on the other hand are split about the rematch with 48% not looking forward to it while 43% are ready for the showdown. Trump also shores up his base where 85% of Republicans would support his candidacy.
“If the rematch takes place, it will be unique and considered like two incumbents running against each other; both have saturated name ID, records to defend having served in the same office, and voters have strong opinions one way or another about their candidate choice,” said Jenell Leonard, Owner of MRG, LLC. “The waning support for President Biden from his base should be concerning to his party. It conveys they no longer have faith in their candidate; they lack the confidence that he can win re-election. This is a candidate problem, not a party problem. Democrats do have a bench of options and should seriously reconsider a change at the top of their ticket.”
Speaking of options, in the same poll, voters were asked if the election were today and the candidate options were Donald Trump or Gretchen Whitmer, who would they support? Whitmer wins the match-up by six points with 46% supporting her candidacy versus the 40% that would maintain their support of Trump.
Whitmer shores up the support through her strong approvals from the Democrat base, Independent voters, union households, and key demographics including women, African Americans, Gen Z voters.
“Democrats are showing they can separate the candidate from the party,” said Tom Shields, Senior Advisor at MRG, LLC. “Whitmer has consistently had approvals above 50 percent since Fall of 2020. She turned a purple seat blue in the last election and could be a viable national candidate that could strengthen the Democrats’ chances of winning Michigan next year.”
The results and the wording of the questions asked by MRG follow.
Q. Would say that you that you will definitely vote, probably vote,
probably not vote or definitely not vote in the general election in 2024?
Q. Do you look forward to a potential rematch of Joe Biden
and Donald Trump in the Presidential election in 2024?
Q. If the election was being held today and the candidates were Democrat Joe Biden and
Republican Donald Trump, would you be voting for (ROTATE) Joe Biden the Democrat or
Donald Trump, the Republican or someone else?
Q. If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Gretchen
Whitmer and Republican Donald Trump would you vote for [ROTATE] (Donald Trump the
Republican), (Gretchen Whitmer the Democrat), or for someone else?
MRG Michigan Poll® Fall 2023
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live interview October 2-8, 2023 with a +1 GOP sample. The sample was randomly drawn from a listed sample of all registered voters with a history of voting and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. Quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African Americans. Seventy-five percent of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only or cell phone dominant households. Some columns may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Individual rounding may impact final totals. This survey yields a sampling margin of error of ±4 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. The sampling margin of error for subgroups may be higher depending on the size of the subgroup.
About Marketing Resource Group
Lansing, Michigan-based Marketing Resource Group is an award-winning PR firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than thirty years, MRG has conducted its bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll®, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 40 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan. Follow MRG on Twitter and on Facebook.
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